In 2021, we published an analysis of municipal water & electricity tariff increases compared to inflation since 1996.
That analysis revealed a shocking reality: the average price of both water & electricity across the four largest South African municipalities increased about four times faster than inflation.
This was a sad state of affairs in a country where a large part of the population lives in poverty.
We updated the analysis in 2024, when it emerged that the trend of higher-than-inflation water & electricity tariffs had unfortunately continued, with the average price of water & electricity increasing five times faster than inflation since 1996.
The question is: have things improved or deteriorated further since 2024?
To answer this question, we have updated the analysis with data up to 2026. The result is shown in the graph below.
Note: The graph depicts overall average increases for residential consumers – actual increases will be different for different types of consumers (residential, commercial and industrial) and will vary between municipalities.
Looking at the graph, the following can be noted:
Both water and electricity tariffs have increased dramatically faster than inflation over the period 1996 to 2026.
In fact, water tariffs have increased even faster than electricity tariffs, despite the electricity tariff increases receiving a lot more negative attention from the press and consumers.
Over the period 1996 to 2026, electricity tariffs increased 5.3 times faster than inflation and water tariffs increased 6 times faster than inflation.
The unfortunate conclusion is that the unsustainable trend of much higher than inflation increases in the price of water & electricity by municipalities has continued over the past two years.
In 2015, 2017, 2019, 2022 and 2024 we published infographics showing Eskom annual tariff increases since 1988 compared to inflation.
Eskom tariffs again increased by substantially more than inflation in 2025, with an average increase of 12.74%. This compares to a CPI (Consumer Price Index) increase of 3.79% over the same year.
The graph below shows the Eskom tariffs from 1988 to 2026, plotted against CPI (Consumer Price Index) or inflation over the same period. It also shows projections up to 2028, based on inflation projections and Eskom’s already approved increases of 8.76% in 2026 and 9.19% in 2027.
Note: The graph depicts overall average increases – actual increases will be different for different types of consumers (residential, commercial and industrial) and will vary between municipalities.
Looking at the graph, the following can be noted:
In the period from 1988 up to the 2008 electricity crisis, electricity tariff increases did not keep tread with inflation. This was partly due to government policy to keep electricity tariffs as low as possible for poor communities, but also due to Eskom having an oversupply of electricity (in the 1990’s) and not investing in new capacity (in the 2000’s).
Between 1988 and 2007, electricity tariffs increased by 223%, whilst inflation over this period was 335%.
From the 2008 electricity crisis onwards, there is a clear and sharp inflection point for electricity tariffs in South Africa. From 2007 to 2026, electricity tariffs increased by 1 172%, whilst inflation over this period was174%. Thus, electricity tariffs increased more than six-fold (or SIX times faster than inflation) in real money terms in 18 years.
Based on the already-approved increases of 8.76% in 2026 and 9.19% in 2027, these above-inflation increases are unfortunately set to continue.
